Predicting atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke via a clinical risk score-a prospective observational study.
NT-proBNP
atrial fibrillation
biomarker
cryptogenic stroke
risk score
Journal
European journal of neurology
ISSN: 1468-1331
Titre abrégé: Eur J Neurol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9506311
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 2022
01 2022
Historique:
received:
07
09
2021
accepted:
09
09
2021
pubmed:
15
9
2021
medline:
5
4
2022
entrez:
14
9
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Atrial fibrillation (AF) often remains undiagnosed in cryptogenic stroke (CS), mostly because of limited availability of cardiac long-term rhythm monitoring. There is an unmet need for a pre-selection of CS patients benefitting from such work-up. A clinical risk score was therefore developed for the prediction of AF after CS and its performance was evaluated over 1 year of follow-up. Our proposed risk score ranges from 0 to 16 points and comprises variables known to be associated with occult AF in CS patients including age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic features (supraventricular premature beats, atrial runs, atrial enlargement, left ventricular ejection fraction) and brain imaging markers (multi-territory/prior cortical infarction). All CS patients admitted to our Stroke Unit between March 2018 and August 2019 were prospectively followed for AF detection over 1 year after discharge. During the 1-year follow-up, 24 (16%) out of 150 CS patients with AF (detected via electrocardiogram controls, n = 18; loop recorder monitoring, n = 6) were diagnosed. Our predefined AF Risk Score (cutoff ≥4 points; highest Youden's index) had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 67% for 1-year prediction of AF. Notably, only two CS patients with <4 score points were diagnosed with AF later on (negative predictive value 98%). A clinical risk score for 1-year prediction of AF in CS with high sensitivity, reasonable specificity and excellent negative predictive value is presented. Generalizability of our score needs to be tested in external cohorts with continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE
Atrial fibrillation (AF) often remains undiagnosed in cryptogenic stroke (CS), mostly because of limited availability of cardiac long-term rhythm monitoring. There is an unmet need for a pre-selection of CS patients benefitting from such work-up. A clinical risk score was therefore developed for the prediction of AF after CS and its performance was evaluated over 1 year of follow-up.
METHODS
Our proposed risk score ranges from 0 to 16 points and comprises variables known to be associated with occult AF in CS patients including age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic features (supraventricular premature beats, atrial runs, atrial enlargement, left ventricular ejection fraction) and brain imaging markers (multi-territory/prior cortical infarction). All CS patients admitted to our Stroke Unit between March 2018 and August 2019 were prospectively followed for AF detection over 1 year after discharge.
RESULTS
During the 1-year follow-up, 24 (16%) out of 150 CS patients with AF (detected via electrocardiogram controls, n = 18; loop recorder monitoring, n = 6) were diagnosed. Our predefined AF Risk Score (cutoff ≥4 points; highest Youden's index) had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 67% for 1-year prediction of AF. Notably, only two CS patients with <4 score points were diagnosed with AF later on (negative predictive value 98%).
CONCLUSIONS
A clinical risk score for 1-year prediction of AF in CS with high sensitivity, reasonable specificity and excellent negative predictive value is presented. Generalizability of our score needs to be tested in external cohorts with continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34519135
doi: 10.1111/ene.15102
pmc: PMC9292187
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Observational Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
149-157Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology.
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