Risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalisation and death in people living with diabetes: A virtual cohort study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

COVID-19 outcomes and risk factors, including comorbidities and medication regimens, in people living with diabetes (PLWD) are poorly defined for low- and middle-income countries. The Provincial Health Data Centre (Western Cape, South Africa) is a health information exchange collating patient-level routine health data for approximately 4 million public sector health care seekers. Data from COVID-19 patients diagnosed between March and July 2020, including PLWD, were analysed to describe risk factors, including dispensed diabetes medications and comorbidities, and their association with COVID-19 outcomes in this population. There were 64,476 COVID-19 patients diagnosed. Of 9305 PLWD, 44.9% were hospitalised, 4.0% admitted to ICU, 0.6% received ventilation and 15.4% died. In contrast, proportions of COVID-19 patients without diabetes were: 12.2% hospitalised, 1.0% admitted, 0.1% ventilated and 4.6% died. PLWD were significantly more likely to be admitted (OR:3.73, 95 %CI: 3.53, 3.94) and to die (OR:3.01, 95 %CI: 2.76,3.28). Significant hospitalised risk factors included HIV infection, chronic kidney disease, current TB, male sex and increasing age. Significant risk factors for mortality were CKD, male sex, HIV infection, previous TB and increasing age. Pre-infection use of insulin was associated with a significant increased risk for hospitalisation (OR:1·39, 95 %CI:1·24,1·57) and mortality (OR1·49, 95 %CI:1·27; 1·74) and metformin was associated with a reduced risk for hospitalisation (OR:0·62,95 %CI:0·55, 0·71) and mortality (OR 0·77, 95 %CI:0·64; 0·92). Using routine health data from this large virtual cohort, we have described the association of infectious and noncommunicable comorbidities as well as pre-infection diabetes medications with COVID-19 outcomes in PLWD in the Western Cape, South Africa. This research was funded in part, by the Wellcome Trust 203135/Z/16/Z, through support of NT. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission. The Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa is supported by core funding from the Wellcome Trust [203135/Z/16/Z]. NT receives funding from the CIDRI-Africa Wellcome Trust grant (203135/Z/16/Z), and NT and TT receive funding from the NIH H3ABioNET award (U24HG006941). NT receives funding from the UKRI/MRC (MC_PC_MR/T037733/1).

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Declaration of Competing Interest JAD has been a speaker and on advisory board for Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Lilly, Servier, MSD, Aspen, Abbott, AstraZeneca, MSD and Boehringer Ingelheim; ILR, WT, and PJR have been a speaker for Sanofi and Aspen. AC has been a speaker for Abbott, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Medtronic, Merck, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and on an advisory board for Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi. All other authors declare no competing interests.