Population impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment on new presentations of hepatitis C-related decompensated cirrhosis: a national record-linkage study.

Population-based studies demonstrating the clinical impact of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are lacking. We examined the impact of the introduction of DAAs on HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis (DC) through analysis of population-based data from Scotland. Through analysis of national surveillance data (involving linkage of HCV diagnosis and clinical databases to hospital and deaths registers), we determined i) the scale-up in the number of patients treated and achieving a sustained viral response (SVR), and ii) the change in the trend of new presentations with HCV-related DC, with the introduction of DAAs. Approximately 11 000 patients had been treated in Scotland over the 8-year period 2010/11 to 2017/18. The scale-up in the number of patients achieving SVR between the pre-DAA and DAA eras was 2.3-fold overall and 5.9-fold among those with compensated cirrhosis (the group at immediate risk of developing DC). In the pre-DAA era, the annual number of HCV-related DC presentations increased 4.6-fold between 2000 (30) and 2014 (142). In the DAA era, presentations decreased by 51% to 69 in 2018 (and by 67% among those with chronic infection at presentation), representing a significant change in trend (rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.90). With the introduction of DAAs, an estimated 330 DC cases had been averted during 2015-18. National scale-up in interferon-free DAA treatment is associated with the rapid downturn in presentations of HCV-related DC at the population-level. Major progress in averting HCV-related DC in the short-term is feasible, and thus other countries should strive to achieve the same.

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Competing interests: SJH reports grants from Health Protection Scotland, during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Gilead, outside the submitted work. SB reports grants, personal fees and other from Gilead; grants, personal fees and other from AbbVie; all outside the submitted work. RF reports personal fees from Gilead, outside the submitted work. KT reports grants from GenMark, grants from Cepheid, grants from Qiagen, other from SpeedX, all outside the submitted work. PCH reports personal fees from Gilead, personal fees from AbbVie, personal fees from BMS, personal fees from Jannsen, personal fees from Roche, all outside the submitted work. NK reports personal fees from Gilead, personal fees from AbbVie, all outside the submitted work. JFD reports grants and personal fees from Gilead, grants and personal fees from BMS, grants and personal fees from MSD, grants and personal fees from Janssen, grants and personal fees from Roche, grants and personal fees from AbbVie, all outside the submitted work.