Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.


Journal

PLoS medicine
ISSN: 1549-1676
Titre abrégé: PLoS Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101231360

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
17 Apr 2024
Historique:
received: 27 10 2023
accepted: 27 03 2024
medline: 17 4 2024
pubmed: 17 4 2024
entrez: 17 4 2024
Statut: aheadofprint

Résumé

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).
METHODS AND FINDINGS RESULTS
The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS
COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Identifiants

pubmed: 38630802
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004387
pii: PMEDICINE-D-23-03160
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

e1004387

Informations de copyright

Copyright: © 2024 Jung et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: JE is president of General Biodefense LLC, a private consulting group for public health informatics, and has interest in READE.ai, a medical artificial intelligence solutions company. MR reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co., which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID-19 testing, vaccination, and treatment. JL has served as an expert witness on cases where the likely length of the pandemic was of issue. The remaining authors declare no competing interests.

Auteurs

Sung-Mok Jung (SM)

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.

Sara L Loo (SL)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Emily Howerton (E)

The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Lucie Contamin (L)

University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Claire P Smith (CP)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Erica C Carcelén (EC)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Katie Yan (K)

The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Samantha J Bents (SJ)

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.

John Levander (J)

University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Jessi Espino (J)

University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Joseph C Lemaitre (JC)

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.

Koji Sato (K)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Clifton D McKee (CD)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Alison L Hill (AL)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Matteo Chinazzi (M)

Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

Jessica T Davis (JT)

Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

Kunpeng Mu (K)

Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

Alessandro Vespignani (A)

Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

Erik T Rosenstrom (ET)

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.

Sebastian A Rodriguez-Cartes (SA)

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.

Julie S Ivy (JS)

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.

Maria E Mayorga (ME)

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.

Julie L Swann (JL)

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.

Guido España (G)

University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America.

Sean Cavany (S)

University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America.

Sean M Moore (SM)

University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America.

T Alex Perkins (TA)

University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America.

Shi Chen (S)

University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, United States of America.

Rajib Paul (R)

University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, United States of America.

Daniel Janies (D)

University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, United States of America.

Jean-Claude Thill (JC)

University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, United States of America.

Ajitesh Srivastava (A)

University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America.

Majd Al Aawar (MA)

University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America.

Kaiming Bi (K)

University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.

Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar (SR)

University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.

Anass Bouchnita (A)

University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, United States of America.

Spencer J Fox (SJ)

University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.

Lauren Ancel Meyers (LA)

University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.

Przemyslaw Porebski (P)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Srini Venkatramanan (S)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Aniruddha Adiga (A)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Benjamin Hurt (B)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Brian Klahn (B)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Joseph Outten (J)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Jiangzhuo Chen (J)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Henning Mortveit (H)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Amanda Wilson (A)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Stefan Hoops (S)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Parantapa Bhattacharya (P)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Dustin Machi (D)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Anil Vullikanti (A)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Bryan Lewis (B)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Madhav Marathe (M)

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

Harry Hochheiser (H)

University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Michael C Runge (MC)

U.S. Geological Survey, Laurel, Maryland, United States of America.

Katriona Shea (K)

The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Shaun Truelove (S)

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Cécile Viboud (C)

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.

Justin Lessler (J)

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

Classifications MeSH