Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa.
EIR
Tiassalé
VECTRI
climate
malaria
vector density
Journal
International journal of environmental research and public health
ISSN: 1660-4601
Titre abrégé: Int J Environ Res Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101238455
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
23 Nov 2023
23 Nov 2023
Historique:
received:
02
05
2023
revised:
04
09
2023
accepted:
15
09
2023
medline:
8
12
2023
pubmed:
8
12
2023
entrez:
8
12
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Malaria continues to be a major public health concern with a substantial burden in Africa. Even though it has been widely demonstrated that malaria transmission is climate-driven, there have been very few studies assessing the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission in Côte d'Ivoire. We used the VECTRI model to predict malaria transmission in southern Côte d'Ivoire. First, we tested the suitability of VECTRI in modeling malaria transmission using ERA5 temperature data and ARC2 rainfall data. We then used the projected climatic data pertaining to 2030, 2050, and 2080 from a set of 14 simulations from the CORDEX-Africa database to compute VECTRI outputs. The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) from the VECTRI model was well correlated with the observed malaria cases from 2010 to 2019, including the peaks of malaria cases and the EIR. However, the correlation between the two parameters was not statistically significant. The VECTRI model predicted an increase in malaria transmissions in both scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) for the time period 2030 to 2080. The monthly EIR for RCP8.5 was very high (1.74 to 1131.71 bites/person) compared to RCP4.5 (0.48 to 908 bites/person). These findings call for greater efforts to control malaria that take into account the impact of climatic factors.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38063532
pii: ijerph20237102
doi: 10.3390/ijerph20237102
pmc: PMC10706663
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : Climate Research for Development (CR4D)
ID : grants of the African Academy of Sciences
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