Machine Learning Successfully Detects Patients with COVID-19 Prior to PCR Results and Predicts Their Survival Based on Standard Laboratory Parameters in an Observational Study.
COVID-19 prognosis
Laboratory parameters
Machine learning
Predictive features
SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis
Journal
Infectious diseases and therapy
ISSN: 2193-8229
Titre abrégé: Infect Dis Ther
Pays: New Zealand
ID NLM: 101634499
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jan 2023
Jan 2023
Historique:
received:
25
07
2022
accepted:
27
09
2022
pubmed:
6
11
2022
medline:
6
11
2022
entrez:
5
11
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
In the current COVID-19 pandemic, clinicians require a manageable set of decisive parameters that can be used to (i) rapidly identify SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, (ii) identify patients with a high risk of a fatal outcome on hospital admission, and (iii) recognize longitudinal warning signs of a possible fatal outcome. This comparative study was performed in 515 patients in the Maria Skłodowska-Curie Specialty Voivodeship Hospital in Zgierz, Poland. The study groups comprised 314 patients with COVID-like symptoms who tested negative and 201 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection; of the latter, 72 patients with COVID-19 died and 129 were released from hospital. Data on which we trained several machine learning (ML) models included clinical findings on admission and during hospitalization, symptoms, epidemiological risk, and reported comorbidities and medications. We identified a set of eight on-admission parameters: white blood cells, antibody-synthesizing lymphocytes, ratios of basophils/lymphocytes, platelets/neutrophils, and monocytes/lymphocytes, procalcitonin, creatinine, and C-reactive protein. The medical decision tree built using these parameters differentiated between SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative patients with up to 90-100% accuracy. Patients with COVID-19 who on hospital admission were older, had higher procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, and troponin I levels together with lower hemoglobin and platelets/neutrophils ratio were found to be at highest risk of death from COVID-19. Furthermore, we identified longitudinal patterns in C-reactive protein, white blood cells, and D dimer that predicted the disease outcome. Our study provides sets of easily obtainable parameters that allow one to assess the status of a patient with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the risk of a fatal disease outcome on hospital admission and during the course of the disease.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36333475
doi: 10.1007/s40121-022-00707-8
pii: 10.1007/s40121-022-00707-8
pmc: PMC9638383
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
111-129Subventions
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : 310030_189334
Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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