External Validation of Two Established Clinical Risk Scores Predicting Outcome after Local Treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases in a Nationwide Cohort.
colorectal cancer
liver metastases
prediction model
resection
survival
Journal
Cancers
ISSN: 2072-6694
Titre abrégé: Cancers (Basel)
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101526829
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 May 2022
10 May 2022
Historique:
received:
30
03
2022
revised:
25
04
2022
accepted:
02
05
2022
entrez:
28
5
2022
pubmed:
29
5
2022
medline:
29
5
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Optimized surgical techniques and systemic therapy have increased the number of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) eligible for local treatment. To increase postoperative survival, we need to stratify patients to customize therapy. Most clinical risk scores (CRSs) which predict prognosis after CRLM resection were based on the outcome of studies in specialized centers, and this may hamper the generalizability of these CRSs in unselected populations and underrepresented subgroups. We aimed to externally validate two CRSs in a population-based cohort of patients with CRLM. A total of 1105 patients with local treatment of CRLM, diagnosed in 2015/2016, were included from a nationwide population-based database. Survival outcomes were analyzed. The Fong and more recently developed GAME CRS were externally validated, including in pre-specified subgroups (≤70/>70 years and with/without perioperative systemic therapy). The three-year DFS was 22.8%, and the median OS in the GAME risk groups (high/moderate/low) was 32.4, 46.7, and 68.1 months, respectively (p < 0.005). The median OS for patients with versus without perioperative therapy was 47.6 (95%CI [39.8, 56.2]) and 54.9 months (95%CI [48.8, 63.7]), respectively (p = 0.152), and for below/above 70 years, it was 54.9 (95%CI [49.3−64.1]) and 44.2 months (95%CI [37.1−54.3]), respectively (p < 0.005). The discriminative ability for OS of Fong CRS was 0.577 (95%CI [0.554, 0.601]), and for GAME, it was 0.596 (95%CI [0.572, 0.621]), and was comparable in the subgroups. In conclusion, both CRSs showed predictive ability in a population-based cohort and in predefined subgroups. However, the limited discriminative ability of these CRSs results in insufficient preoperative risk stratification for clinical decision-making.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35625968
pii: cancers14102356
doi: 10.3390/cancers14102356
pmc: PMC9139295
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Subventions
Organisme : Sacha Swarttouw-Hijmans Fund
ID : Not applicable.
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