Weight of risk factors for mortality and short-term mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We conducted a population-based cohort study to estimate mortality before, during and after the COVID-19 peak and to compare mortality in 2020 with rates reported in previous years, with a view to helping decision makers to apply containment measures for high-risk groups. All deaths were collected between 2015 and 2020 from municipal registry database. In 2020, weeks 1-26 were stratified in three periods: before, during and after the COVID mortality peak. The Poisson Generalized Linear regression Model showed the "harvesting effect". Three logistic regressions for 8 dependent variables (age and comorbidities) and a t-test of differences described all-cause mortality risk factors in 2019 and 2020 and differences between COVID and non-COVID patients. A total of 47,876 deaths were collected. All-cause deaths increased by 38.5% during the COVID peak and decreased by 18% during the post-peak period in comparison with the average registered during the control period (2015-19), with significant mortality displacement in 2020. Except for chronic renal injuries in subjects aged 45-64 years, diabetes and chronic cardiovascular diseases in those aged 65-84 years, and neuropathies in those aged > 84 years, the weight of comorbidities in deaths was similar or lower in COVID subjects than in non-COVID subjects. Surprisingly, the weight of comorbidities in death, compared to weight in non-COVID subjects allows you to highlight some surprising results such as COPD, IBD and Cancer. The excess mortality that we observed in the entire period were modest in comparison with initial estimates during the peak, owing to the mild influenza season and the harvesting effect starting from the second half of May.

©2021 Pacini Editore SRL, Pisa, Italy.

Conflict of interest statement The authors declare no conflict of interest.