The risk of death or unplanned readmission after discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalization in Alberta and Ontario.
Journal
CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne
ISSN: 1488-2329
Titre abrégé: CMAJ
Pays: Canada
ID NLM: 9711805
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
16 05 2022
16 05 2022
Historique:
accepted:
20
04
2022
entrez:
16
5
2022
pubmed:
17
5
2022
medline:
20
5
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The frequency of readmissions after COVID-19 hospitalizations is uncertain, as is whether current readmission prediction equations are useful for discharge risk stratification of COVID-19 survivors or for comparing among hospitals. We sought to determine the frequency and predictors of death or unplanned readmission after a COVID-19 hospital discharge. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults (≥ 18 yr) who were discharged alive from hospital after a nonpsychiatric, nonobstetric, acute care admission for COVID-19 between Jan. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021, in Alberta and Ontario. Of 843 737 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction during the study period, 46 412 (5.5%) were adults admitted to hospital within 14 days of their positive test. Of these, 8496 died in hospital and 34 846 were discharged alive (30 336 discharged after an index admission of ≤ 30 d and 4510 discharged after an admission > 30 d). One in 9 discharged patients died or were readmitted within 30 days after discharge (3173 [10.5%] of those with stay ≤ 30 d and 579 [12.8%] of those with stay > 30 d). The LACE score (length of stay, acuity, Charlson Comorbidity Index and number of emergency visits in previous 6 months) for predicting urgent readmission or death within 30 days had a c-statistic of 0.60 in Alberta and 0.61 in Ontario; inclusion of sex, discharge locale, deprivation index and teaching hospital status in the model improved the c-statistic to 0.73. Death or readmission after discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalization is common and had a similar frequency in Alberta and Ontario. Risk stratification and interinstitutional comparisons of outcomes after hospital admission for COVID-19 should include sex, discharge locale and socioeconomic measures, in addition to the LACE variables.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
The frequency of readmissions after COVID-19 hospitalizations is uncertain, as is whether current readmission prediction equations are useful for discharge risk stratification of COVID-19 survivors or for comparing among hospitals. We sought to determine the frequency and predictors of death or unplanned readmission after a COVID-19 hospital discharge.
METHODS
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults (≥ 18 yr) who were discharged alive from hospital after a nonpsychiatric, nonobstetric, acute care admission for COVID-19 between Jan. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021, in Alberta and Ontario.
RESULTS
Of 843 737 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction during the study period, 46 412 (5.5%) were adults admitted to hospital within 14 days of their positive test. Of these, 8496 died in hospital and 34 846 were discharged alive (30 336 discharged after an index admission of ≤ 30 d and 4510 discharged after an admission > 30 d). One in 9 discharged patients died or were readmitted within 30 days after discharge (3173 [10.5%] of those with stay ≤ 30 d and 579 [12.8%] of those with stay > 30 d). The LACE score (length of stay, acuity, Charlson Comorbidity Index and number of emergency visits in previous 6 months) for predicting urgent readmission or death within 30 days had a c-statistic of 0.60 in Alberta and 0.61 in Ontario; inclusion of sex, discharge locale, deprivation index and teaching hospital status in the model improved the c-statistic to 0.73.
INTERPRETATION
Death or readmission after discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalization is common and had a similar frequency in Alberta and Ontario. Risk stratification and interinstitutional comparisons of outcomes after hospital admission for COVID-19 should include sex, discharge locale and socioeconomic measures, in addition to the LACE variables.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35577377
pii: 194/19/E666
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.220272
pmc: PMC9438727
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
E666-E673Informations de copyright
© 2022 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests: Kieran Quinn has a grant from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for a study of long COVID-19, and reports stock in BioNTech and Merck. Amol Verma holds research grants from CIHR, the Canadian Frailty Network, the Digital Research Alliance of Canada, the St. Michael’s Hospital Association, the St. Michael’s Hospital Foundation and the University of Toronto to support research related to COVID-19. He is the provincial clinical lead for quality improvement in general internal medicine with Ontario Health. Jacob Udell reports grants from Amgen, Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novartis and Sanofi. Amy Yu holds a new investigator award from the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada and an AFP Innovation award, and grants from the CIHR, Health Data Research Network Canada and Academic Health Sciences Centres of Ontario. Fahad Razak receives a salary from Ontario Health, is assistant director of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table and has a salary award from the Physicians’ Services Incorporated (PSI) Foundation.
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