COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
19 Nov 2021
19 Nov 2021
Historique:
pubmed:
8
10
2021
medline:
30
11
2021
entrez:
7
10
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34618602
doi: 10.1126/science.abk0414
pmc: PMC7612211
mid: EMS140736
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
989-994Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 203077
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 107568
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 220991
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 220985
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 201866
Pays : United Kingdom
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