Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread.

Animals Birds Borrelia burgdorferi Ixodes Lyme Disease
Borrelia burgdorferi Ixodes scapularis boosted regression tree host movement reaction–advection–diffusion model tick-borne disease

Journal

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
ISSN: 1742-5662
Titre abrégé: J R Soc Interface
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101217269

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
08 2021
Historique:
entrez: 11 8 2021
pubmed: 12 8 2021
medline: 30 10 2021
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Identifying ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread has great value for tick-borne disease management. However, theoretical investigations into the consequences of host movement behaviour on pathogen spread dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes remain limited because spatially explicit epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic mechanisms governing host movement are rare. We built a mechanistic movement model to investigate how the interplay between multiple ecological drivers affects the risk of tick-borne pathogen spread across heterogeneous landscapes. We used the model to generate simulations of tick dispersal by migratory birds and terrestrial hosts across theoretical landscapes varying in resource aggregation, and we performed a sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different parameters on the infected tick spread rate, tick infection prevalence and infected tick density. Our findings highlight the importance of host movement and tick population dynamics in explaining the infected tick spread rate into new regions. Tick infection prevalence and infected tick density were driven by predictors related to the infection process and tick population dynamics, respectively. Our results suggest that control strategies aiming to reduce tick burden on tick reproduction hosts and encounter rate between immature ticks and pathogen amplification hosts will be most effective at reducing tick-borne disease risk.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0134 PMID: 34376091 PMC: PMC8355688
pubmed: 34376091
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0134
pmc: PMC8355688
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

20210134

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Auteurs

Olivia Tardy (O)

Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada J2S 2M2.
Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP), Université de Montréal and the CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 7101 avenue du Parc, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3N 1X9.

Catherine Bouchard (C)

Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada J2S 2M2.
Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada J2S 2M2.

Eric Chamberland (E)

Groupe Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Éléments Finis (GIREF), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Université Laval, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, Québec, Québec, Canada G1V 0A6.

André Fortin (A)

Groupe Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Éléments Finis (GIREF), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Université Laval, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, Québec, Québec, Canada G1V 0A6.

Patricia Lamirande (P)

Groupe Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Éléments Finis (GIREF), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Université Laval, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, Québec, Québec, Canada G1V 0A6.

Nicholas H Ogden (NH)

Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada J2S 2M2.
Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada J2S 2M2.
Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP), Université de Montréal and the CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 7101 avenue du Parc, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3N 1X9.

Patrick A Leighton (PA)

Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada J2S 2M2.
Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP), Université de Montréal and the CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 7101 avenue du Parc, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3N 1X9.

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