Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India.
Basic reproduction number
COVID-19
Isolation
Mathematical model
Model prediction
Sensitivity analysis
Journal
Chaos, solitons, and fractals
ISSN: 0960-0779
Titre abrégé: Chaos Solitons Fractals
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100971564
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2020
Oct 2020
Historique:
received:
19
05
2020
revised:
12
06
2020
accepted:
22
06
2020
entrez:
25
8
2020
pubmed:
25
8
2020
medline:
25
8
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
In India, 100,340 confirmed cases and 3155 confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 were reported as of May 18, 2020. Due to absence of specific vaccine or therapy, non-pharmacological interventions including social distancing, contact tracing are essential to end the worldwide COVID-19. We propose a mathematical model that predicts the dynamics of COVID-19 in 17 provinces of India and the overall India. A complete scenario is given to demonstrate the estimated pandemic life cycle along with the real data or history to date, which in turn divulges the predicted inflection point and ending phase of SARS-CoV-2. The proposed model monitors the dynamics of six compartments, namely susceptible (S), asymptomatic (A), recovered (R), infected (I), isolated infected (
Identifiants
pubmed: 32834603
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110049
pii: S0960-0779(20)30446-X
pii: 110049
pmc: PMC7321056
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
110049Informations de copyright
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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