Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Canada, 2019-2030: a modelling study.

Aged Canada / epidemiology Cost of Illness Female History, 21st Century Humans Incidence Liver Neoplasms / epidemiology Liver Transplantation Male Markov Chains Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Morbidity Mortality Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / diagnosis Prevalence Public Health Surveillance

Journal

CMAJ open
ISSN: 2291-0026
Titre abrégé: CMAJ Open
Pays: Canada
ID NLM: 101620603

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Historique:
entrez: 11 6 2020
pubmed: 11 6 2020
medline: 11 6 2020
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada. We used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases. The model projected that the number of NAFLD cases would increase by 20% between 2019 and 2030, from an estimated 7 757 000 cases to 9 305 000 cases. Increases in advanced fibrosis cases were relatively greater, as the number of model-estimated prevalent stage F3 cases would increase by 65%, to 357 000, and that of prevalent stage F4 cases would increase by 95%, to 195 000. Estimated incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis would increase by up to 95%, and the number of annual NAFLD-related deaths would double, to 5600. Increasing rates of obesity translate into increasing NAFLD-related cases of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and related mortality. Prevention efforts should be aimed at reducing the incidence of NAFLD and slowing fibrosis progression among those already affected.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada.
METHODS
We used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases.
RESULTS
The model projected that the number of NAFLD cases would increase by 20% between 2019 and 2030, from an estimated 7 757 000 cases to 9 305 000 cases. Increases in advanced fibrosis cases were relatively greater, as the number of model-estimated prevalent stage F3 cases would increase by 65%, to 357 000, and that of prevalent stage F4 cases would increase by 95%, to 195 000. Estimated incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis would increase by up to 95%, and the number of annual NAFLD-related deaths would double, to 5600.
INTERPRETATION
Increasing rates of obesity translate into increasing NAFLD-related cases of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and related mortality. Prevention efforts should be aimed at reducing the incidence of NAFLD and slowing fibrosis progression among those already affected.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20190212 PMID: 32518095 PMC: PMC7286622
pubmed: 32518095
pii: 8/2/E429
doi: 10.9778/cmajo.20190212
pmc: PMC7286622
doi:

Types de publication

Historical Article Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Pagination

E429-E436

Informations de copyright

Copyright 2020, Joule Inc. or its licensors.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests: Funding for this project was provided by Gilead Sciences. No other competing interests were declared.

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Auteurs

Mark G Swain (MG)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Alnoor Ramji (A)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Keyur Patel (K)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Giada Sebastiani (G)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Abdel Aziz Shaheen (AA)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Edward Tam (E)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Paul Marotta (P)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Magdy Elkhashab (M)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Harpreet S Bajaj (HS)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

Chris Estes (C)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo. cestes@cdafound.org.

Homie Razavi (H)

Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.

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Classifications MeSH

Recherchemedicale.com › Personnes › Tranches d'âge › Adulte › Sujet âgé › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Régions géographiques › Amériques › Amérique du Nord › Canada › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Méthodes épidémiologiques › Collecte de données › Enquêtes et questionnaires › Enquêtes de santé › Indicateurs d'état de santé › Coûts indirects de la maladie › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Sciences humaines › Histoire › Histoire moderne 1601- › Histoire du 21ème siècle › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Eucaryotes › Animaux › Chordés › Vertébrés › Mammifères › Eutheria › Primates › Haplorhini › Catarrhini › Hominidae › Humains › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Méthodes épidémiologiques › Collecte de données › Registre civil › Morbidité › Incidence › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Maladies de l'appareil digestif › Maladies du foie › Tumeurs du foie › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
Recherchemedicale.com › Procédures de chirurgie opératoire › Transplantation › Transplantation de tissu › Transplantation hépatique › Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in...
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